A guest contribution by Vera Lengsfeld
Sunday’s Bavarian election is less spectacular in signal than the election in Hesse, but it is also clear.
A
Markus Söder’s course for a bourgeois coalition, namely the continuation of the existing CSU-Free Voters coalition, has been confirmed. The ultimately but almost unspectacular result also says: Bavaria is part of Germany.
B
The Free Voters of Bavaria and the AfD can also feel like winners. Each for its own clear course. As far as the Greens are concerned, the result shows that they have exhausted their potential with not even 15 percent of the vote – there is no reason to let this small social grouping continue to bully them, neither in Bavaria nor in Germany. If Bavarian clientelism was already hard to bear outside Bavaria for the CSU, the Green-Bavarian version is completely toxic.

Black-green as a “project” for Germany has failed.
C
The Bavarian result clears the way for both Markus Söder and Hubert Aiwanger at the federal level: Söder just about got his act together in the leaflet crisis. His adherence to the coalition with the Free Voters saved him from the crash. His result neither binds him to Bavaria nor fuels his ever-breakthrough big-man addiction, which itself blocked him in 2021.
The signal from Bavaria is that the CDU/CSU should enter the 2025 election campaign with the goal of establishing a middle-class coalition (no green! no red!).
Hubert Aiwanger also survived the flyer stress test – but with a black eye. Although the Free Voters have the symbolic 2nd place and his personal result (direct mandate in Landshut) is also considerable, it is a Bavarian effect. Nevertheless, Hubert Aiwanger can now act in federal politics, but only from a strong position in Bavaria – outside Bavaria he will fail without a partner. As the top candidate for the Bundestag in Bavaria, however, he could achieve a strong result for a third bourgeois force and perhaps even win a direct mandate in the Bundestag.
D
Who was Friedrich Merz again?
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Guest posts always reflect the author’s opinion, not mine. And I believe that contributions from contentious authors are particularly valuable for discussion and democracy. I value my readers as adults and want to offer them different points of view so they can form their own opinions.

Vera Lengsfeld, born in Thuringia in 1952, is a politician and publicist. She was a civil rights activist and a member of the GDR’s first freely elected Volkskammer. From 1990 to 2005, she was a member of the German Bundestag, initially until 1996 for Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, and from 1996 for the CDU. Since then she has been working as a freelance author. In 2008, she was honored with the Order of Merit of the Federal Republic of Germany. She runs a blog that I highly recommend. The post first appeared on Vera Lengsfeld’s blog.
Image: Shutterstockmore from Vera Lengsfeld on reitschuster.de



