By Kai Rebmann
“Our democracy is strong, but we must also take it back now!” No, this is not a quote from Hubert Aiwanger that has not been reproduced quite correctly. This is how Emily Büning commented on the outcome of the state elections in Bavaria and Hesse last weekend. It is probably not too much to read into these words if one assumes that by “we” the federal executive director of the Green Party means first and foremost herself and her party.
As a reminder: In June 2023, the Free Voters leader had demanded at a rally in Erding that “the silent majority must take back democracy”. This sentence referred to the statement that the traffic light coalition in Berlin is obviously and quite deliberately governing past the will of the majority. Aiwanger has reiterated this interpretation time and again, including on Markus Lanz on ZDF.
„Unsere Demokratie ist stark, aber wir müssen sie uns jetzt auch zurückerobern“
Emily Büning, Bundesgeschäftsführerin, Grüne pic.twitter.com/S6ggbX7spa
— Argo Nerd (@argonerd) October 10, 2023
Although the statements of the Green Party functionary and the deputy prime minister of Bavaria are almost identical in essence, there were and are reactions to them that could hardly be more different. While Hubert Aiwanger still has to justify himself time and again for this and even faced calls for his resignation weeks before the “flyer affair “, the media have taken up the famous mantle of silence in the case of Emily Büning.
The statement is not even reported on to any significant extent, let alone a scandal is constructed out of it. Apparently, the media tacitly agree with the assumption expressed by Büning that something can be wrong with “strong democracy” if the “wrong people” gain approval.
Winfried Kretschmann, Prime Minister of Baden-Württemberg and a party friend of Emily Büning, had recently declared: “When a deputy prime minister says that we have to take back the democracy that brought him to power, then something is wrong. Then something is dangerous.”
Söder calls for commitment to democracy
Even in the upcoming coalition negotiations in Munich, Aiwanger’s statements on democracy are to play a role again – or still do, at least if CSU leader Markus Söder has his way. The formal winner of the election (37.0 percent) is trying to put his opponent under public pressure before the talks begin and is demanding a “commitment to democracy” from Aiwanger.
This is obviously intended to suggest that the Free Voters are second-class democrats – similar to the way the AfD is treated. However, such games are catching less and less with the citizens, as shown not least by the results of the recent state elections. The Free Voters and the AfD were the only parties to make significant gains.
A lot had happened” during the election campaign, Söder said, alluding not only to the “leaflet affair” but also to Aiwanger’s appearance in Erding. Therefore, he said, it must be clarified whether the Free Voters are “firmly anchored in the democratic spectrum,” because otherwise this is “a problem.” Aiwanger is reported to be demanding an unequivocal “commitment to democracy”, which is then to be immortalized in the preamble of the coalition agreement still to be negotiated.
FW parliamentary group leader Florian Streibl shrugs off this demand, calls it “disturbing” – and takes a first swipe at the Söder CSU. The CSU should know what the Free Voters’ understanding of democracy is like, Streibl told dpa: “After all, we’ve been governing together for five years.”
CSU has only one option - the Free Voters
What is at stake for the Christian Socialists in Bavaria quickly becomes clear, at the latest, when one looks at the starting position. Markus Söder ruled out a coalition with the Greens several times before the election without need, and an alliance with the AfD anyway. In purely mathematical terms, a black-red coalition would also be possible in Munich, but only with the narrowest of all possible majorities (102 of 203 seats).
Moreover, it will probably be impossible for the CSU and Markus Söder to make a coalition with the SPD palatable – or even acceptable – to their core voters. That leaves only the Free Voters and their powerful leader as truly realistic allies. And they not only know this, but are openly flirting with four ministerial posts (instead of the previous three).
There are certainly arguments for this; after all, the gap between the parties in voters’ favor has narrowed compared to 2018. In the knowledge of the clearly better hand on the hand Aiwanger sends a declaration of war to the past and (to 99.9 per cent) also future coalition partner: “Each dissociation from us means a turning away from the common sense […] I would recommend the CSU not to appear now so girlishly.”
The latter is also to be understood as a side blow to CSU parliamentary group leader Klaus Holetschek, who accused Aiwanger and the Free Voters – after they had brought their demand for a fourth ministerial post into play on Monday – of still acting in “beer tent mode” after the election instead of now striking “more conciliatory tones”.
The most likely scenario is that the Free Voters will be able to negotiate the Justice Ministry out for themselves. On the one hand, the previous incumbent, Georg Eisenreich, has long been considered controversial in Bavarian judicial circles. On the other hand, the Free Voters have an equally prominent and predestined potential successor in their ranks in the form of former TV star Alexander Hold.
Because one thing is clear: Markus Söder and the CSU are in the self-imposed Aiwanger trap and have only this one realistic and also viable government option!
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Kai Rebmann is a publicist and publisher. He manages a publishing company and runs his own blog.
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